Abstrait

Modelling of the Probability Assessment of Grounding Vessels by Fuzzy Numbers

BIYA MOTTO Frederic

The article contains the descriptions of fault-tree analysis as one of the methods of modelling the accidents and near misses in navigation. This method results in a quantitative evaluation of probability (frequency) of the potential hazardous event in fuzzy environment. Uncertainty of the initial data may be epistemic i.e. caused by expert judgement. It is proposed in the article to use the fuzzy numbers to describe the probabilities of the initial events of the accident scenario. The quantitative characteristics of the membership functions are determined by particular quantifier scale. The example of using the level sets method for evaluating the possibility of grounding the ship in the shallow waters is given